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Springtime has just passed in Beijing, and we locals are thankful that another season of sandstorms is behind us. This year wasn’t too bad with only three mild sandstorms descending on us out of the Gobi Desert. But now summer is here, and we can be fairly confident that there will be no more for the year.
Just as sandy winds are tied to the calendar, so are the political winds of China. Thus, like meteorologists observing weather patterns in the sky, watchers of China’s political climate can also observe and anticipate certain patterns.
Whenever I hear about something “interesting” going on, such as a crackdown, or tightening of restrictions, or the sudden imposition of new restrictions, the first thing I do is look at the calendar to try to figure out what’s going on. Political seasons are marked by certain events, such as unusually important government/party meetings or anniversaries of important historical events. When these events are nearing, the political winds often blow more strongly than during other times of the year. The events or anniversaries provide not so much a time to institute new crackdowns or regulations, but a time to actually enforce existing ones. The central government sends word down to the security forces in the provinces and cities that they are to make sure that nothing unfortunate happens during these times. Hence, the local officials initiate their own crackdowns and impose certain restrictions which are often lifted once the event has passed.
The first gusts of wind begin to blow in late February as the government gears up for the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress which meets in Beijing early March. This event is always preceded by various crackdowns in Beijing. Beggars are rounded up and sent home. Grannies (“Marxist Mamas” as they used to be called) are deputized to keep watch over the neighborhoods. It seems that suddenly half the population is wearing little red arm bands that say “on duty,” and watching out for any sign of activity that might disrupt the harmonious society. Long-forgotten regulations are suddenly enforced, such as showing your ID card to enter a university campus, or crossing the street only at the light. The internet often slows down as the “net nanny” kicks into high gear, monitoring and restricting information flow. When the meetings are over, things go back to normal.
One major event on the political calendar is June 4, which marks the anniversary of the violent crackdown on protesters in 1989. This is a very sensitive time for the government, and things often tighten up a lot, especially on college campuses. In the early days after the event, students were confined to their campuses and dormitories, but they showed their anger by throwing glass bottles out the window (the Chinese word for bottle—xiao ping—is a synonym of Deng Xiao-ping’s name). As this event has receded and the campuses are now populated with students who were toddlers at the time, the tensions have subsided as well. Nonetheless, it is still often preceded by some sort of tightening of security.
Between March and June is what I like to call “China-bashing Season.” It is during this time that numerous US and European government reports on human rights, religious freedom, and trading practices are issued, and they tend to be very critical of China. Every year the same thing happens: the critical report on China is issued with much fanfare, ands China angrily responds. During this time, the Western press tends to be filled with negative stories on China’s record or its growth or its potential threat to world peace. But by the middle of June, the reports stop coming, and things settle back down again.
Finally, every five years, an event in October triggers political winds that dwarf all of the others, namely the meeting of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, at which the next generation of party leaders will be identified. Think of it as the primaries, campaign, and general election all rolled into one (but of course with only a few hundred people participating!). This year there will be such a meeting in Beijing. It is a critical meeting for the current leadership, because it will allow Mr. Hu to consolidate power for his remaining five years in office and to identify the man who will be his successor when he leaves office five years hence. In the run-up to this meeting the government (central and local) will do everything it feels is necessary to “clean up the house.”
So, the next time you hear rumors or see evidence of crackdowns and tighter restrictions, remember to look at the calendar. It might just signal that some leaders are coming to town for a big meeting! Kay Danielson has been living and working in East Asia for over 20 years. She does research and supports the church through various consulting and teaching projects.
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